Threading the Needle: How Jordan Seeks Out Stability in an Unstable Region

By. Alec Hennessy

DOI. 10.57912/30273016

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The start of the October 7^th  Gaza war between Israel and Hamas had repercussions playing out over the entire Middle East and led to a significant destabilization in the region. Likewise, the recent overthrow of the Syrian regime and the current conflict in Sudan show an area that is currently rife with political instability and violence. Into this situation enters the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which has largely avoided the civil wars, coups, and instability of its neighbors and has often served as the mediator in regional conflicts, seeking to bring together opposing sides in diplomatic agreements to resolve conflicts. Jordan is in an ideal position to utilize  its influence throughout the region to promote sustainable peace and should be supported by all diplomatic, economic, and strategic means in its mission to help  bring stability to the Middle East.

Since the beginning of its modern history, Jordan has found itself in a constant balancing act between the large Israeli military and its western backers, and their own Arab neighbors and population on how to approach the complex geopolitical situation it faces. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan was founded on March 22nd, 1946, after gaining independence from the  British. It was founded as a constitutional monarchy, with the Hashemite dynasty in charge of most legislative and executive powers. Within 2 years of its founding, Jordan was at war with the newly created state of Israel and in the subsequent 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Jordan lost the war but managed to gain the West Bank, and custodianship of the Holy Sites of Jerusalem, though it also inherited hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees into its country.

Jordan again went to war with Israel in the 6-day war and subsequently lost control of Jerusalem and the West Bank. Within the country, this defeat created tensions between the Palestinian refugees and armed groups operating out of the country and the Jordanian government, which led to the events of Black September, in which the government of Jordan fought the Palestinian Liberation Organization and removed all militant Palestinian organizations from the country. The events of Black September and the fears of the Hashemite monarchy that the Palestinian refugees could take over their country are the root of the current Jordanian efforts to seek stability and become a neutral party that can mediate between others’ problems. Jordan eventually joined a U.S.-brokered peace with Israel in 1994 and remained one of a handful of Arab states that recognize Israel’s existence.. Since this peace deal, the Jordanian government has been able to establish a solid foothold  within the regional landscape and carve out a stable niche for itself.

Jordan seeks out stability first by creating a secure domestic political environment. Since Black September, the Hashemite Kingdom has kept its population satisfied by broadly advocating for Palestinian liberation while also ensuring it has retained a cordial relationship with Israel. Jordan opposes Israel’s bombing of Gaza, continues its calls for an independent Palestinian state, as well as threatening to revoke the 1994 peace deal if Israel annexes Gaza or the West Bank. Their actions have mostly satisfied the Jordanian domestic population as well as the millions of Palestinian refugees within its borders and provided the country with domestic stability. When dealing with Israel, the Jordanian government ensures cooperation on essential matters, such as trade and water supply.

The second way Jordan has established stability is through  its mediation efforts in various regional conflicts. Jordan has hosted talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Israel and Lebanon, factions in Libya, and even Iran and Iraq as far back as the First Gulf War. Regardless of their individual success, these peacemaking efforts frame Jordan as a reasonable actor who can work with all sides in a conflict. This approach, combined with the backing of the United States, has ensured that since Black September, no country has attacked Jordan or threatened its domestic stability.

The following method of ensuring its stability has been to seek out and ally with powers further afield to protect its interests. From its founding, the country initially allied with Great Britain in 1948, and with the United States starting in the 1950s, to ensure it would always have protection against foreign invaders. Despite fraying relations with other countries, Saudi relations with Jordan also remain strong as the Gulf monarchy views Jordan as essential for maintaining northern security. The Jordanian efforts to create treaties and alliances among both its neighbors and global powers have lent it considerable foreign support and dissuaded potential  enemies from attempting to conquer it.

The Jordanian military is the first line of defense for the country. It recognizes its position as a small nation situated between the regional military giants of Israel, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Jordan’s population does not have the most significant military among its neighbors, but it specializes in the quality of its troops compared to others. Jordan operates some of the best special forces in the region and equips its troops with some of the latest in Western military equipment, particularly Western tanks and armored fighting vehicles. This small but capable military ensures Jordan remains protected should all other methods fail.

While American leaders struggled to broker and maintain a ceasefire between the warring sides in the Israel-Gaza war, it would be a wise strategic policy to strengthen and continue supporting the Arab state of Jordan. The most effective way to achieve this is to sign a mutual defense treaty with Jordan, providing it with a sense of security and allowing it to redirect its security resources to supporting the region more effectively, rather than focusing on its own guarded security. The country has proven itself to be a reliable American ally in fighting ISIS, combating drug smuggling in and out of Syria, and even shooting down Iranian missiles destined for Israel. Beyond these factors, however, is also the hard-fought Jordanian credibility and diplomatic authority in the region. Jordan is a crucial piece in Middle Eastern stability, as it has a unique ability to bring together opposing sides and foster dialogue in conflicts that other groups may not have the influence or credibility to resolve.

Since the nation’s founding, and especially since the closure of the Arab-Israeli wars, the state of Jordan has been committed to regional stability. It is in the best interest of the United States to further strengthen its ties with the Arab kingdom. Jordan has proven itself to be a dependable partner in security and counterterrorism, and with conflicts in Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Sudan, this is needed now more than ever. The U.S. should also expand its current military base in Jordan, known as Tower 22, to demonstrate to the Jordanian government that the U.S. is committed to Jordan's security.  The U.S. can also lend its support behind Jordanian peacemaking efforts in organizations such as the U.N. and the Arab League, as well as provide  additional economic aid to the country to ensure it remains economically strong enough to avoid domestic protests and uncertainty. This economic aid can be provided through loans, development grants, or other forms of economic relief. Lastly, the U.S. can also help Jordan in one more substantial way by exerting pressure on Israel, as Israel’s most significant foreign ally, to work together and develop cooperation with Jordan instead of posturing against it on issues such as Gaza and the West Bank.

Jordan has been and for now will continue to remain a strong U.S. ally in the Middle East, and despite its small size compared to its neighbors, it should not be underestimated. The country survived the shifting storms of Middle Eastern politics and is currently one of the region’s most reliable, free, and trusted states. The U.S. should do everything in its power to support its Jordanian ally and, in doing so, bring about a more stable Middle East.