Hold My Water: The Ethiopian and Egyptian Struggle for Power

By. Zachary Veloz

DOI. 10.57912/30273109

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The Nile is one of the world's most iconic rivers, allowing many Northeast African civilizations to flourish. The river spans 6,650 kilometers, serving as the center of trade, agriculture, and power of northeastern Africa for around a millennium. Today, the importance of the Nile will take on a new dimension through Ethiopia’s GERD, which will alter the future across Northeastern Africa and the Horn of Africa. 

Ethiopia is finalizing the construction of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with the goal of the GERD being to provide more electricity to Ethiopia, where 60% of the population lacks access. This dam, however, has come with its critics, most notably Egypt (which relies on the Nile for 90% of its water supply), which has cited numerous concerns. The dam is expected to store significant amounts of water, altering the natural upstream flow, decreasing Egypt’s water supply and increasing its reliance on Ethiopia. However, it has become evident that the conflict extends beyond water supply with both nations displaying political and military austere. The GERD is more than just a dispute about water security; rather, it is a symbolic shift in the geopolitical order in Northeastern Africa. It is one in which Egypt must cooperate with reality and strive to maintain influence.

Ethiopia, which supplies 85% of the water that flows through the Nile, has historically been excluded from discussions and treaties regarding the Nile’s use. Since 1959, Egypt has greatly benefited from treaties with Sudan that guarantee certain water allotments without Ethiopia’s input. Egypt’s domination of the Nile has long been a concern within the Ethiopian government, as the nation has been landlocked since 1991, meaning the Nile supplies almost all of Ethiopia’s freshwater. This freshwater provides drinking water and strategic elements such as trade and defense. However, Egyptian dominance of the Nile diminishes Ethiopia's ability to project its ambitions. Egypt has attempted to express its authority as a significant international player by framing the Nile as a concern for the Arab world. Ethiopia has seen this as an attempt to “Arabize” the river, and in response, they have framed the dam's construction as a means to “Africanize” the Nile. Both view the Nile and the subsequent dam as a proxy for competing ideologies for the future of the continent. The GERD is Ethiopia’s long-awaited response to solidify its vision for power, after years of neglect from Northeast African politics. 

The timing of the dam has played a crucial role in shifting the balance of power. Construction of the dam commenced in 2011, following Ethiopian claims that it aims to reduce poverty and improve the living standards of its people. In reality, Egypt was undergoing political struggles as a result of the Arab Spring, making it impossible for the government to respond effectively to the situation. Additionally, Egypt projected that the dam would take around 12-21 years to fill with water; however, the Ethiopian government completed the process in 2023, a mere three years after it began. The accelerated timeline was motivated by the opportunity to impose leadership influence on the Nile and, therefore, Northeastern Africa. Egypt has been attempting to halt the expansion of Ethiopian influence brought about by the dam, with the intensity of its responses suggesting a deeper fear: the rise of Ethiopia at Egypt’s expense. The Nile provides nations such as Egypt with not only water, but also food and land for agriculture. The Egyptian government fears the dam will reduce the amount of arable land, as it is estimated that a 2% reduction of the Nile could result in the loss of 2,000 acres of irrigated land in Egypt alone. These nations will now have to rely on Ethiopia for their inherent survival, essentially placing Ethiopia as the most important nation in Northeastern Africa.

Egypt’s international voice has long been on the decline, embroiled in an economic crisis only exacerbated by the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Houthis in Yemen have made the Red Sea unprofitable, resulting in their foreign debt skyrocketing. Egypt has failed to protect fellow Nile-dependent nations, most evident in its 2019-2021 intervention in Sudan, which is currently embroiled in civil war once again. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has experienced substantial growth as a regional power despite its ongoing civil war. It has recently partnered with the BRICS alliance and is seen as a strategic hub for Africa, a position once enjoyed by Egypt. It has enjoyed rapid economic growth, transitioning away from agriculture and shifting steadily towards manufacturing and services. The GERD will further improve economic conditions with increased technology for the public, a stable energy source for factories, and increased output. Simply put, Egypt currently lacks the power to stand up to Ethiopia, and views stopping the dam construction as a way of delaying Ethiopia’s rise to power.

Egypt’s attempts to gain support from other nations to halt dam construction have been desperate. Losing control of the Nile to foreign powers will cause an identity crisis within the nation, making it important to maintain its influence over the Nile as a source of pride and respect. Despite having a military that lacks discipline and training, Egypt has used threats of “blowing up the dam” and inciting mass violence to influence other nations to cut international aid for the construction of the dam, with the U.S. alone cutting $100 million in 2020. This strategy has largely been a failure, with the dam still receiving notable financial aid from foreign powers, including China and Sudan, as well as the U.S. reversing its decision under the Biden administration. These actions of neglect have further isolated the Egyptian position and reiterated its fragility on the international stage. Additionally, between 2021and 2023, Egypt continued to urge the United Nations Security Council to intervene against Ethiopia for the construction of the dam, claiming it violates international law, yet it was ignored by the Security Council. Nations have chosen to align with Ethiopia, as its ascending power is viewed as offering greater opportunities within the country and across the African continent. The prestige that Egypt once held as the gateway for foreign investment in Africa has deteriorated and risks being eradicated with its continued approach.

Every action the Egyptian government has attempted thus far has only highlighted its inability to adapt to the current climate. Egypt is unwilling to relinquish its historic title by conceding its regional influence. It is now at a crossroads between resisting the imminent power shift or adapting to find a new role. As the dam concludes its construction, there seems to be no alternative for Egypt to avoid Ethiopia’s expanding power. Their strategies of threatening war, citing humanitarian aid, and international law have failed to gain any traction. To avoid losing even more power and influence within the region, Egypt should adapt to the shifting norms in Africa. As the global order shifts toward a more regional focus, Egypt should transition more of its attention to issues in the Middle East. Long regarded as a dominant regional power, Egypt can leverage its historical influence. Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Egypt serves as a mediator connecting the Middle East to the rest of the Arab world, forming new economic partnerships with Turkey and Qatar, while politically engaging in friendly relations with the interim Syrian government. Additionally, Egypt has been strengthening military and infrastructural ties with Jordan, aligning themselves with another peace mediator in the region. Regardless of the outcome, how the future plays out will change the geopolitical landscape of Africa forever.