Climate Change, Upstream Damming, and Iraq’s Growing Water Crisis

By. Nathaniel Seaman

DOI. 10.57912/31146541

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The Tigris and Euphrates rivers are a mighty pair that have cast a long shadow on human history. It was on their banks that the first agricultural revolution gave way to the first human civilization. Their waters have been crossed by many of history’s greatest empires, from the Assyrians to the Ottoman to the British. Now, however, the rivers themselves, and the millions who live on their banks and rely on them, are facing new problems. 

Iraq is facing the quadruple issues of climate change, upstream damming, water mismanagement, and a lack of infrastructure, which have led to one of Iraq’s driest years on record. Many Iraqis are now facing water insecurity, and drought has severely impacted agriculture. Attempts have been made to alleviate the crisis, but these often amount to piecemeal solutions that temporarily address symptoms rather than the root issues themselves. The United States and other international institutions must use their diplomatic, technical, and monetary resources to help Iraq implement long-term solutions that address the root issues of the water crisis. 

The most important factor contributing to the crisis is climate change. It has led to abnormally low snowfall in the headwater areas and rainfall in the wider region, significantly reducing the flow of water into the Tigris and the Euphrates. Climate change has caused increasing temperatures and worsening heatwaves, which have heightened the need for and consumption of water while limiting its availability. Additionally, warming temperatures can lead to worsening water quality and potential increases in salinity and bacteria. The crisis in Iraq, like many similar crises elsewhere, will not go away until climate change is addressed.  

Another prominent issue worsening the current water crisis is upriver damming. The headwaters of both the Tigris and Euphrates lie mostly in Turkey, with some tributaries of the Tigris flowing through Iran, while the Euphrates flows through Syria before reaching Iraq. These three countries have all constructed dams that restrict the flow of water into Iraq, greatly reducing their water supply. The worst offender is Turkey, whose Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) led to the construction of 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants on the Tigris and Euphrates, as well as their tributaries. This project has given Turkey significant control over the flow of water on the Tigris and Euphrates, and it has recently released water in amounts well below normal, as Turkish water demands are high.

In November of 2025, Turkey and Iraq signed an oil for water agreement. Under this deal, Turkish companies are tasked with rebuilding and modernizing Iraqi water infrastructure, financed by Iraqi oil revenue. Turkey also promised to increase the flow of water into the Tigris and Euphrates. However, some in Iraq have expressed concerns about the deal, pointing out that the deal is vague and not officially binding. Some lawmakers also worry that the deal grants Turkey too much control over Iraq’s resources and weakens Iraq’s sovereignty. A substantial issue is Iraq and Turkey’s major power imbalance, with Turkey being a much larger economy and one of Iraq’s most important export partners. Turkey, therefore, has little reason to help Iraq if it decides it is no longer in its personal interest and can largely dictate the terms of any agreement, including this recent one. 

Several other factors have led to the current water crisis, chief among them are a lack of infrastructure and resource mismanagement. These are two other main causes of Iraq’s crisis, two that are deeply intertwined. Firstly, infrastructure such as water treatment facilities, reservoirs, irrigation canals, and water distribution systems is aged and degraded after years of neglect. The Iraqi government lacks the funding and resources to fix water-wasting irrigation canals and old pipe systems and to build new infrastructure, such as water treatment plants, that could alleviate the crisis. Years of conflict in the region have made it difficult for the government to repair  infrastructure and have sapped resources and attention away from the problem. Endemic corruption and a lack of cooperation and coordination between various national, local, and nongovernmental authorities have hampered efforts to fix infrastructure and alleviate the water crisis. The agricultural sector also contributes heavily to water scarcity, as around half of Iraq's farmland is irrigated. As a result,, irrigation consumes a significant share  of Iraq’s water. This has become an issue because most farmers in Iraq use inefficient irrigation systems and cultivate water-hungry crops such as wheat. 

Iraq has become trapped in a cycle in which corruption, inefficiency, and lack of government authority have prevented the nation from addressing the water crisis. This worsens the water crisis, sapping money and resources from the government and the economy. While the root cause of the water crisis is climate change, these issues have made it impossible for Iraq to manage the crisis effectively. While the water crisis cannot be resolved without addressing climate change, a few key steps can significantly alleviate it. 

The new Iraq-Turkey agreement is one step in the right direction. However, its vagueness and the fact that it is not legally binding render it unable to truly address the crisis. Lasting solutions to the crisis require a multilateral framework that includes concrete promises of action and enforcement mechanisms. To that end, the United States and international institutions should encourage Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria to develop a multilateral framework for governing the Tigris-Euphrates Basin, where participating states can establish and enforce rules and mediate disagreements. This framework could be modeled after the Nile Basin Initiative, a partnership between Nile countries that establishes  rules regulating how countries can use their water resources to ensure access to water for all downstream countries. The framework should ideally lay out a set of regulations that govern each country's use of the rivers, limiting flow blocking and water use to levels that ensure sufficient water reaches countries downstream. 

Furthermore, it would be in the best interest of all four countries, besides Syria, which has already signed, to sign the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, the treaty governing the use of transnational rivers. By doing so, the countries would have a common set of rules to follow, and they could use the convention as a jumping-off point to create their own framework unique to the Tigris and Euphrates. Finally, the United States and the European Union need to place serious effort and funding into assisting the rebuilding of Iraq’s agricultural and water infrastructure, allowing them to decrease water use and increase sustainability. This includes replacing old irrigation systems with drip irrigation, which is a highly water-efficient and simple to install irrigation system, as well as encouraging farmers to replace water-intensive nonnative crops with less water-dependent native ones. 

The water crisis is a major issue, and it cannot be solved by Iraq alone. It is also indicative of a larger problem. As climate change worsens, droughts and water crises will become more common across the world. As the water crisis in Iraq shows, many countries are poorly equipped to deal with these crises. Until global warming can be solved, methods for reducing and controlling the use of water must be strengthened everywhere. Comprehensive water control treaties, agricultural reforms, and the repair of outdated and inefficient infrastructure are all necessary steps to take across the world to reduce the felt impact of climate change. Rivers have always been the very base of human civilization, from the beginning of history along the Tigris and Euphrates. It is now more important than ever that the world treats them as the indispensable resource that they are.